The climate catastrophe movement’s models and data show that predictions of an alarming temperature rise in the Earth’s climate are wrong. This error is destroying our ability to reform our country.
Well presented facts and drawn along with interest to the conclusion. Learned that we can't predict cloud formation....(unless made by chemtrails.... long thin 'clouds' that spread to form grey canopies), and, about 'Global Circulation Models'. The reductionism to Co2 by particular individuals and groups across Continents, is one giant bluff to mankind and one giant step back to a Darker Age.
Great article Richard, which I have shared in the hope of educating others
Net Zero is the mother of all stealth taxes, based on an unproven hypothesis, as a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist - from inept, intermittent renewables, to mobile crematorium battery cars, net zero tat is just engineeringly incompetent nonsense, transferring wealth from the masses, to the globalist elites
You state: "There are very many other processes that affect the earth’s temperature, including water evaporation, cloud formation, ocean currents, meridional transport, sunspot activity, and the gravitational effect of the movement of the planets around the sun."
Climate catastrophism falls at the first hurdle: rising carbon dioxide does not produce rising temperature. Specifically, there is no observable relationship (what statisticians call a “correlation”) between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the temperature of the atmosphere.
Many thanks, Jack. There is absolutly no problem with the fact that there is data that supports different interpretations. The core claim of the climate catastophe movement is that action in justified becayse the "science is settled". All that is necessary to refute this claim is to show that it is not. All the best.
No scientist claims the science is settled. That is a policy statement. Enough is known about climate change to develop policies based in the precautionary principle.
"Precautionary principle: The government's actions to protect the environment and health are guided by the precautionary principle, which states that "where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.""
Gravity is not settled. That does not prevent me from taking precautions when on tall structures.
I assume you take precautions by wearing a seat belt in a moving automobile and having home fire insurance, even though a car accident and home fire are not certain.
Since all the drivers of climate change are not yet identified, the physics of many of the drivers that are identified are not known, non-linear systems such as the climate cannot be represented computationally, and the models that have been developed fail to replicate historical data, can you say a little more about how you think "enough is known about climate change"?
The geological record provides powerful evidence that atmospheric CO2 concentrations drive climate change, and supports multiple lines of evidence that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are altering the Earth's climate. Moreover, the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere means that Earth is committed to a certain degree of warming. As the Earth's climate changes due to the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land-use, the planet we live on will experience further changes that will have increasingly drastic effects on human societies.
Or Richard Alley who maintains the GISP2 ice core data set.
Richard Alley: "The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History"
> CO2 is the primary driver of climate change. Check with geologists
I am a geologist. I checked. Your statement is incorrect. The primary driver of climate is variation of solar unflux with orbit. It's a straighforward task - about 20 minutes, with rudimentary python scripting - to plot earth temperature and CO2 for the last million years from public domain ice core data and run Fourier analysis to identify the fundamental frequencies in the periodic signal. Both vary with (i) axial precession (ii) axial tilt and (iii) orbital ellipticity. And CO2 lags temperature - as would be predicted from the observation that CO2 is a temperature dependent product of biophysical processes. I've plotted the results to spare you the effort: https://ibb.co/x6LgBMS and https://ibb.co/2vHrkcv. Whatever anthropogenic contribution there is is dwarfed by this phenomenon. I hope you find that reassuring.
CO2 levels follow global temperature, that’s already been proven in two recent reports - CO2 is the gas of life, our atmospheric CO2 at around 420ppm is extremely low - plants & crops etc require 800-1500ppm for optimal growth, at below 200ppm, they start to die, then so, do we
Atmospheric CO2 levels in earths history have been far higher that today, as have global temperatures
Even NASA have shown the extent of global greening over the last 30 years with satellite imagery
We should be generating far more CO2 for an healthy biosphere
Read what the IPCC has saod had non-linear chaotic systems.
The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system,
and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states
is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction
of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible
states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.
Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is
computationally intensive and requires the application of new
methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information
is essential.
The climate models do replicate historical data.
Bova, S., Rosenthal, Y., Liu, Z. et al. Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial. Nature 589, 548–553 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03155-x
Jack - I'm glad this matter is resolved to your satisfaction. I will live with my inability to persuade you otherwise, and wish you all the best. Thank you for reading my essay.
A first class essay - short, very informative, punchy and to the point.
Well presented facts and drawn along with interest to the conclusion. Learned that we can't predict cloud formation....(unless made by chemtrails.... long thin 'clouds' that spread to form grey canopies), and, about 'Global Circulation Models'. The reductionism to Co2 by particular individuals and groups across Continents, is one giant bluff to mankind and one giant step back to a Darker Age.
Well said, that man! I'm marking this to re-read, slowly, several times I should think!
Great article Richard, which I have shared in the hope of educating others
Net Zero is the mother of all stealth taxes, based on an unproven hypothesis, as a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist - from inept, intermittent renewables, to mobile crematorium battery cars, net zero tat is just engineeringly incompetent nonsense, transferring wealth from the masses, to the globalist elites
The ones who livelihoods depend on their hypothesis being accepted are fossil fuel shills like William Happer and Willie Soon.
You are a willing dupe.
Excellent and pithy analysis, thank you
Berkeley Earth has discounted any significant role for UHI in global temperatures.
https://static.berkeleyearth.org/papers/UHI-GIGS-1-104.pdf
You state: "There are very many other processes that affect the earth’s temperature, including water evaporation, cloud formation, ocean currents, meridional transport, sunspot activity, and the gravitational effect of the movement of the planets around the sun."
H20 is an amplifier; CO2 is a driver.
https://www.acs.org/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content
B. D. Santer et al
September 25, 2007
104 (39) 15248-15253
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702872104
Cloud formation results in both warming and coolng depending on cloud height.
https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html
Climate change affects ocean currents.
https://www.science.org/content/article/global-warming-speeding-ocean-currents-here-s-why
Solar activity has been declining for decades as global temperatures increase.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
Climate change affects gravity.
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/GOCE/GOCE_reveals_gravity_dip_from_ice_loss
Milankovitch cycles have us cooling.
https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/
You claim
Climate catastrophism falls at the first hurdle: rising carbon dioxide does not produce rising temperature. Specifically, there is no observable relationship (what statisticians call a “correlation”) between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the temperature of the atmosphere.
The data say otherwise.
500 million years of correlation.
https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/chp%3A10.1007%2F978-3-319-46939-3_1/MediaObjects/426313_1_En_1_Fig1_HTML.gif?as=webp
Salawitch, R.J., Bennett, B.F., Hope, A.P., Tribett, W.R., Canty, T.P. (2017). Earth’s Climate System. In: Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope. Springer Climate. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46939-3_1
250 years of correlation between anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures.
https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/results-plot-volcanoes.jpg
https://berkeleyearth.org/archive/summary-of-findings/
Many thanks, Jack. There is absolutly no problem with the fact that there is data that supports different interpretations. The core claim of the climate catastophe movement is that action in justified becayse the "science is settled". All that is necessary to refute this claim is to show that it is not. All the best.
No scientist claims the science is settled. That is a policy statement. Enough is known about climate change to develop policies based in the precautionary principle.
"Precautionary principle: The government's actions to protect the environment and health are guided by the precautionary principle, which states that "where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.""
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/canadian-environmental-protection-act-registry/publications/guide-to-understanding/chapter-3.html
Gravity is not settled. That does not prevent me from taking precautions when on tall structures.
I assume you take precautions by wearing a seat belt in a moving automobile and having home fire insurance, even though a car accident and home fire are not certain.
Since all the drivers of climate change are not yet identified, the physics of many of the drivers that are identified are not known, non-linear systems such as the climate cannot be represented computationally, and the models that have been developed fail to replicate historical data, can you say a little more about how you think "enough is known about climate change"?
CO2 is the primary driver of climate change. Check with geologists.
Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate
Authors: Caroline H. Lear et al.
Publication: Journal of the Geological Society
Volume 178
https://doi.org/10.1144/jgs2020-239
The geological record provides powerful evidence that atmospheric CO2 concentrations drive climate change, and supports multiple lines of evidence that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are altering the Earth's climate. Moreover, the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere means that Earth is committed to a certain degree of warming. As the Earth's climate changes due to the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land-use, the planet we live on will experience further changes that will have increasingly drastic effects on human societies.
Or Richard Alley who maintains the GISP2 ice core data set.
Richard Alley: "The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History"
https://youtu.be/RffPSrRpq_g
Richard Alley - 4.6 Billion Years of Earth’s Climate History: The Role of CO2
https://youtu.be/ujkcTZZlikg
Fall Meeting 2009 Bjerknes Lecture - The Biggest Control Knob
https://youtu.be/3UVb--2-PBg
> CO2 is the primary driver of climate change. Check with geologists
I am a geologist. I checked. Your statement is incorrect. The primary driver of climate is variation of solar unflux with orbit. It's a straighforward task - about 20 minutes, with rudimentary python scripting - to plot earth temperature and CO2 for the last million years from public domain ice core data and run Fourier analysis to identify the fundamental frequencies in the periodic signal. Both vary with (i) axial precession (ii) axial tilt and (iii) orbital ellipticity. And CO2 lags temperature - as would be predicted from the observation that CO2 is a temperature dependent product of biophysical processes. I've plotted the results to spare you the effort: https://ibb.co/x6LgBMS and https://ibb.co/2vHrkcv. Whatever anthropogenic contribution there is is dwarfed by this phenomenon. I hope you find that reassuring.
Check with NASA
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/
CO2 levels follow global temperature, that’s already been proven in two recent reports - CO2 is the gas of life, our atmospheric CO2 at around 420ppm is extremely low - plants & crops etc require 800-1500ppm for optimal growth, at below 200ppm, they start to die, then so, do we
Atmospheric CO2 levels in earths history have been far higher that today, as have global temperatures
Even NASA have shown the extent of global greening over the last 30 years with satellite imagery
We should be generating far more CO2 for an healthy biosphere
You really need to educate yourself on climate and CO2
No scientific institution or professional association in any country on the entire plant disputes AGW.
Read what the IPCC has saod had non-linear chaotic systems.
The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system,
and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states
is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction
of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible
states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.
Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is
computationally intensive and requires the application of new
methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information
is essential.
The climate models do replicate historical data.
Bova, S., Rosenthal, Y., Liu, Z. et al. Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial. Nature 589, 548–553 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03155-x
https://www.space.com/scientists-solve-climate-mystery-holocene-temperature-conundrum
Jack - I'm glad this matter is resolved to your satisfaction. I will live with my inability to persuade you otherwise, and wish you all the best. Thank you for reading my essay.
Richard, you cannot educate those who won’t be - keep up the good work fella
I rely on science - try it sometime.
I gather you cannot refute my posts. I refuted yours. You are the the oblivious to scientific evidence. .