Excellent, well-referenced and nuanced article (as ever). By way of corollary, analysis in 2014 by two engineers entitled "Trends in the Central England Temperature since 1659," compiled from historical weather data (Figs 1 and 2 on pages 20 and 21):
"With this chart we see the true nature of the warming that has taken place since 1659. It is mainly a winter phenomenon...
...The greater warmth in winter quite literally saves UK plc billions of pounds annually in reduced heating requirements. The warming also brings on spring conditions two to three weeks earlier and prolongs the summer and early autumn by a week or two. The result has to have been a useful rise in agricultural productivity."
To which could be added lives saved in winter. The climate heist is literally a killer on the loose.
The general rule is that 9 times as many people die from the cold as die from heat. This is true worldwide and on all continents. The CO2 climate cult hates to talk about that inconvenient truth.
It beggars believe that we have clueless politicians attempting a major redesign of the country’s energy infrastructure. Pending Trump coming to the rescue, we could (sadly) do with a prolonged period of sub-zero temperature Dunkelflaute conditions (negligible wind and sun) encompassing the UK and the near continent. Prolonged power cuts and the sad deaths of hundreds or thousands of vulnerable people might just be enough to make Starmer and Miliband think again.
Don't they have backup diesel generators for such occasions? <snort>
I wouldn't trust Milliband or 2TFG Starmer Farmer Harmer to notice an emergency that didn't affect them even if it smacked them round the back of the head ....
I worked for a "large oil and gas company" and one very cold year when we came close to exhausting gas reserves, I had to produce the scripts and speeches for the media that would have been given in the event of blackouts through which we distanced ourselves. In the course of that I attended COBRA meetings and learned what the disaster response plan was. It was not impressive and, as far as I know, has not improved.
You don’t hear much about it nowadays but 10 years ago Richard North reported on Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) “dirty diesel” generators which were being surreptitiously deployed to back up wind power during a wind drought: https://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.php?blogno=84095.
The cold winter of 20/21 was likely a time when people were told to stay home so those who would have preferred a warm public space were denied access and instead suffered and died in cold homes. Government intervention in personal choices is usually not helpful.
Thanks for the info. I don't quite understand the effects of a couple degrees up or down; the statistics you quote seem counterintuitive. But I do understand that many people will die of the cold in their unheated homes during any prolonged power outage in a cold winter.
Hello Al. It's not an intuitive outcome for me either. Reading the papers, it's explained by the fact that sweating is highly effective and can be sustained for long periods where shivering isn't and can't; and cold narrows veins and arteries and makes blood more viscous, producing rapid increases in cardiovascular strain over narrow temperature changes. But it is a cast iron one. If you plot deaths agains the average temperature, you get a straight line. When I spoke to the charity to understandthe data better, they explained that a big factor is dampness rather than just cold, which tends to but doesn't always vary together with temperature.
Excellent, well-referenced and nuanced article (as ever). By way of corollary, analysis in 2014 by two engineers entitled "Trends in the Central England Temperature since 1659," compiled from historical weather data (Figs 1 and 2 on pages 20 and 21):
https://www.brugesgroup.com/images/pdfs/thesunandtrendsintheCETsince1659.pdf
"With this chart we see the true nature of the warming that has taken place since 1659. It is mainly a winter phenomenon...
...The greater warmth in winter quite literally saves UK plc billions of pounds annually in reduced heating requirements. The warming also brings on spring conditions two to three weeks earlier and prolongs the summer and early autumn by a week or two. The result has to have been a useful rise in agricultural productivity."
To which could be added lives saved in winter. The climate heist is literally a killer on the loose.
Robert - thank you for your thoughtful comment, and for the linked reference which I was not aware of. Will study.
The general rule is that 9 times as many people die from the cold as die from heat. This is true worldwide and on all continents. The CO2 climate cult hates to talk about that inconvenient truth.
At his visit to COP29 (accompanied on the 5,000-mile round trip by about 450 flunkies), Starmer confirmed that the UK will formally aim to cut emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. This means a cut of 65% from current levels which is impossible, as Paul Homewood has pointed out, especially after President Trump puts the mockers on the climate change hoax: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/11/15/no-airports-no-imports-no-meat-cold-homes-starmers-dystopian-future/.
It beggars believe that we have clueless politicians attempting a major redesign of the country’s energy infrastructure. Pending Trump coming to the rescue, we could (sadly) do with a prolonged period of sub-zero temperature Dunkelflaute conditions (negligible wind and sun) encompassing the UK and the near continent. Prolonged power cuts and the sad deaths of hundreds or thousands of vulnerable people might just be enough to make Starmer and Miliband think again.
The need for a black restart of the grid would be an especially salutary lesson, not just for Starmer but also for the general public who mostly seem blissfully unaware of the grid degradation that is being wrought in the name of pointless unilateral Net Zero. Texas has foolishly made itself very dependent on wind power and only narrowly avoided a black restart situation in February 2021: https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2021-08-05/if-the-texas-power-grid-had-gone-down-it-would-need-a-black-start-how-long-would-that-take.
Don't they have backup diesel generators for such occasions? <snort>
I wouldn't trust Milliband or 2TFG Starmer Farmer Harmer to notice an emergency that didn't affect them even if it smacked them round the back of the head ....
I worked for a "large oil and gas company" and one very cold year when we came close to exhausting gas reserves, I had to produce the scripts and speeches for the media that would have been given in the event of blackouts through which we distanced ourselves. In the course of that I attended COBRA meetings and learned what the disaster response plan was. It was not impressive and, as far as I know, has not improved.
You don’t hear much about it nowadays but 10 years ago Richard North reported on Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR) “dirty diesel” generators which were being surreptitiously deployed to back up wind power during a wind drought: https://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.php?blogno=84095.
Yes, I'd heard of those, but I don't know whether they're still around. Probably, I suspect.....
The cold winter of 20/21 was likely a time when people were told to stay home so those who would have preferred a warm public space were denied access and instead suffered and died in cold homes. Government intervention in personal choices is usually not helpful.
Thanks for the info. I don't quite understand the effects of a couple degrees up or down; the statistics you quote seem counterintuitive. But I do understand that many people will die of the cold in their unheated homes during any prolonged power outage in a cold winter.
Hello Al. It's not an intuitive outcome for me either. Reading the papers, it's explained by the fact that sweating is highly effective and can be sustained for long periods where shivering isn't and can't; and cold narrows veins and arteries and makes blood more viscous, producing rapid increases in cardiovascular strain over narrow temperature changes. But it is a cast iron one. If you plot deaths agains the average temperature, you get a straight line. When I spoke to the charity to understandthe data better, they explained that a big factor is dampness rather than just cold, which tends to but doesn't always vary together with temperature.
Thanks. My daughter teaches physiology - I should have asked her about it.
I’ve noticed in rainy Oregon that I feel colder when it’s wet and 40F than when it’s 30F and dry.