How many lives have been saved by mask wearing? How much has been spent on the purchase of masks? Could that expenditure have been more effective in saving lives by being spent elsewhere? That's a question that occurs to me when I see so many masks littering the streets. 'Tis a minor point compared the points you raise but worth seeking an answer to.
Thanks, Ned. Since masks block droplet infection but are transparent to aerosol infection, and COVID-19 is spread by aerosol infection, it's reasonable to assume that Professor Christopher Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci, Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government was correct when he stated on national television in March 2020 that masks have no medical value in this application.
Hi, agree with the above but there's a major omission. Your quick analysis assumes that a lockdown "saves" someone from Covid and goes on saving them, so they get their remaining life expectancy. If instead (as I understand) lockdown has only ultra-short-term benefit, then you either have to assume the costs of lockdown (to secure 7.5 years life) last 7.5 years;. Or assume the benefit of lockdown is only (say) a year, you delay Covid death by a short time but then the risk of death is still there.
Your analysis is correct if a new treatment arrives in the time granted by lockdown. So perhaps looking back you have a point as we now have the vaccine. But looking forward (which is really the point) ... We already have the vaccine. So hard to see what significant future gains are possible.
RR - thanks for your comment, with which I agree. The reality is that, as a mitigation for a (largely) geriatric disease, lockdown has merely altered what many have died from rather than prevented them from dying. In SAGE's own projections of death in 2020, they acknowledged that between half and two thirds of the victims would have died anyway, from one of the dozens of other morbidities with which COVID competes in that cohort. My essay has simply treated the slogan "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" as a treatment option, and computed the relevant and comparable metric.
How many lives have been saved by mask wearing? How much has been spent on the purchase of masks? Could that expenditure have been more effective in saving lives by being spent elsewhere? That's a question that occurs to me when I see so many masks littering the streets. 'Tis a minor point compared the points you raise but worth seeking an answer to.
Thanks, Ned. Since masks block droplet infection but are transparent to aerosol infection, and COVID-19 is spread by aerosol infection, it's reasonable to assume that Professor Christopher Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci, Chief Medical Adviser to the UK Government was correct when he stated on national television in March 2020 that masks have no medical value in this application.
and that Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries was correct when she was on the BBC and stated
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-face-masks-increase-risk-infection-doctor-jenny-harries-a9396811.html
'For the average member of the public walking down a street, it is not a good idea'
Hi, agree with the above but there's a major omission. Your quick analysis assumes that a lockdown "saves" someone from Covid and goes on saving them, so they get their remaining life expectancy. If instead (as I understand) lockdown has only ultra-short-term benefit, then you either have to assume the costs of lockdown (to secure 7.5 years life) last 7.5 years;. Or assume the benefit of lockdown is only (say) a year, you delay Covid death by a short time but then the risk of death is still there.
Your analysis is correct if a new treatment arrives in the time granted by lockdown. So perhaps looking back you have a point as we now have the vaccine. But looking forward (which is really the point) ... We already have the vaccine. So hard to see what significant future gains are possible.
RR - thanks for your comment, with which I agree. The reality is that, as a mitigation for a (largely) geriatric disease, lockdown has merely altered what many have died from rather than prevented them from dying. In SAGE's own projections of death in 2020, they acknowledged that between half and two thirds of the victims would have died anyway, from one of the dozens of other morbidities with which COVID competes in that cohort. My essay has simply treated the slogan "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" as a treatment option, and computed the relevant and comparable metric.